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“The confidence we experience as we make a judgment is not a reasoned evaluation of the probability that it is right. Confidence is a feeling, one determined mostly by the coherence of the story and by the ease with which it comes to mind, even when the evidence for the story is sparse and unreliable. The bias toward coherence favors overconfidence. An individual who expresses high confidence probably has a good story, which may or may not be true.”

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Daniel Kahneman

Don’t Blink! The Hazards of Confidence, The New York Times, 19 October 2011, 15 May 2014 http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/23/magazine/dont-blink-the-hazards-of-confidence.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0, <br class="br">"Don't Blink! The Hazards of Confidence" (2011)

“Caring for people often takes the form of concern for the quality of their stories, not for their feelings. Indeed, we can be deeply moved even by events that change the stories of people already dead. We feel pity for a man who died believing in his wife’s love for him when we hear that she had a lover for many years and stayed with her husband only for his money. We pity the husband although he had lived a happy life. We feel the humiliation of a scientist who made a discovery that was proved false after she died, although she did not feel the humiliation. Most important, we all care intensely for the narrative of our own life and very much want it to be a good story, with a decent hero.”

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Daniel Kahneman

Bias, Blindness and How We Truly Think (Part 4): Daniel Kahneman, bloomberg.com, 24 October 2011, 15 May 2014 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-27/bias-blindness-and-how-we-truly-think-part-4-daniel-kahneman.html, <br class="br">"Bias, Blindness and How We Truly Think" (2011)

“Subjective confidence in a judgement is not a reasoned evaluation of the probability that this judgement is correct. Confidence is a feeling, which reflects the coherence of the information and the cognitive ease of processing it. It is wise to take admissions of uncertainty seriously, but declarations of high confidence mainly tell you that an individual has constructed a coherent story in his mind, not necessarily that the story is true.”

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Daniel Kahneman buch Thinking, Fast and Slow

Quelle: Thinking, Fast and Slow (2011), Chapter 20, "The illusion of validity", page 212 (ISBN 9780141033570).

“There is a deep gap between our thinking about statistics and our thinking about individual cases.”

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Daniel Kahneman buch Thinking, Fast and Slow

Quelle: Thinking, Fast and Slow (2011), Chapter 15, "Causes trump statistics", page 174 (ISBN 9780141033570).

“Optimism is normal, but some fortunate people are more optimistic than the rest of us. If you are genetically endowed with an optimistic bias, you hardly need to be told that you are a lucky person -- you already feel fortunate. Optimistic people play a disproportionate role in shaping our lives. Their decisions make a difference; they are inventors, entrepreneurs, political and military leaders -- not average people. They got to where they are by seeking challenges and taking risks. They are talented and they have been lucky, almost certainly luckier than they acknowledge.”

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Daniel Kahneman

Bias, Blindness and How We Truly Think (Part 1): Daniel Kahneman, bloomberg.com, 24 October 2011, 15 May 2014 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-24/bias-blindness-and-how-we-truly-think-part-1-daniel-kahneman.html, <br class="br">"Bias, Blindness and How We Truly Think" (2011)

“Many unfortunate human situations unfold […] where people who face very bad options take desperate gambles, accepting a high probability of making things worse in exchange for a small hope of avoiding a large loss. Risk taking of this king often turns manageable failures into disasters.”

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Daniel Kahneman buch Thinking, Fast and Slow

Quelle: Thinking, Fast and Slow (2011), Chapter 29, "The fourfold pattern", pages 318-319 (ISBN 9780141033570).

“A recurrent theme of this book is that luck plays a large role in every story of success; it is almost always easy to identify a small change in the story that would have turned a remarkable achievement into a mediocre outcome.”

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Daniel Kahneman buch Thinking, Fast and Slow

Introduction, page 9 (ISBN 9780141033570).
Thinking, Fast and Slow (2011)

“A plausible interpretation is that higher income is associated with a reduced ability to enjoy the small pleasures of life. […] There is a clear contrast between the effects of income on experienced well-being and in life satisfaction. Higher income brings with it higher satisfaction, well beyond the point at which it ceases to have any positive effect on experience. […] Life satisfaction is not a flawed measure of their experienced well-being, as I thought some years ago. It is something else entirely.”

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Daniel Kahneman buch Thinking, Fast and Slow

Quelle: Thinking, Fast and Slow (2011), Chapter 37, "Experienced well-being", page 397 (ISBN 9780141033570).