„A mechanistic model has the following advantages:
1. It contributes to our scientiﬁc understanding of the phenomenon under study.
2. It usually provides a better basis for extrapolation (at least to conditions worthy of further experimental investigation if not through the entire range of all input variables).
3. It tends to be parsimonious (i. e, frugal) in the use of parameters and to provide better estimates of the response“

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Quelle: Empirical Model-Building and Response Surfaces (1987), p. 13-14 as cited in: Andrew Odlyzko (2010) Social Networks and Mathematical Models http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/doc/ecra.westland.pdf Electronic Commerce Research and Applications 9(1): 26-28 (2010)

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George Box

britischer Statistiker 1919 - 2013

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„Simple calculations based on a range of variables are better than elaborate ones based on limited input.“

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— Ralph Brazelton Peck American civil engineer 1912 - 2008

as taken by Professor Ralph Peck's Legacy Website http://peck.geoengineer.org/words.html#

„Bayesian networks [is] a term coined in Pearl (1985) to emphasize three aspects: (1) the subjective nature of the input information; (2) the reliance on Bayes' conditioning as the basis of updating information; (3) the distinction between causal and evidential models of reasoning, a distinction that underscores Thomas Bayes' paper of 1763“

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— Judea Pearl Computer scientist 1936

Quelle: Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference, 2000, p. 14

„In recent years, the studies of the effects of drugs on the behavior of animals have been playing an increasingly important role. Animal studies have been an advantage over studies with human subjects because better control of experimental variables and a possibility of using a wider range of the doses. It is also permissible to administer toxix compounds to animals. One can interfere surgically with various parts of the central nervous system while investigating the effects of the drugs. The whole field of comparative psychopharmacology has been recently reviewed“

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— Thaddus E. Weckowicz Canadian psychologist 1919 - 2000

Weckowicz (1967) "Chapter VI - Animal Studies of Hallucinogenic Drugs" in: Abram Hoffer, Humphry Osmond (1967) The hallucinogens. p. 555

„Our first objective in undertaking the experimental program described here has been to gain some understanding of what goes on in long sequences of plays of Prisoner's Dilemma. We have attempted to gain this understanding by postulating a system going through a sequence of states and by attempting to formulate some mathematical models from which the dynamics of the system could be deduced. Once such a model is found, its parameters, properly interpreted, become the key terms in the emerging psychological theory. This strategy can be deemed successful, if the parameters so discovered are independent of the process itself, if they suggest further investigation, and if the further investigations, in turn, lead to a more inclusive theory.“

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— Anatol Rapoport Russian-born American mathematical psychologist 1911 - 2007

Quelle: 1960s, Prisoner's dilemma: A study in conflict and cooperation (1965), p. 185

„As is used in connection with systems engineering, a model is a qualitative or quantitative representation of a process or endeavor that shows the effects of those factors which are significant for the purposes being considered. Modeling is the process of making a model. Although the model may not represent the actual phenomenon in all respects, it does describe the essential inputs, outputs, and internal characteristics, as well as provide an indication of environmental conditions similar to those of actual equipment.“

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— Harold Chestnut American engineer 1917 - 2001

Quelle: Systems Engineering Tools, (1965), p. 108; As cited in: Alberto Ortiz (1992, p. 13)

„[This set of inputs [can be defined] as 1) input which is always the same or is of many types, 2) input which occurs periodically (or very infrequently), and 3) input which does or does not seek to destroy the system. Their rationale for developing the classification was to aid in the definition of steps to be followed in order to find the] solution of the problem of a large-scale or complex system.“

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— Robert E. Machol American systems engineer 1917 - 1998

Quelle: System Engineering (1957), p. 302; As cited in: Thomas C. Ford (2008) Interoperability Measurement. p. 146

„The value of the intrinsic approach is especially apparent in considering 3-dimensional congruence spaces… The intrinsic geometry of such a space of curvature K provides formulae for the surface area S and the volume V of a "small sphere" of radius r, whose leading terms are 3)S = 4 \pi r^2 (1 - \frac{Kr^2}{3} + …),
V = \frac{4}{3} \pi r^3 (1 - \frac{Kr^2}{5} + …).“

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— Howard P. Robertson American mathematician and physicist 1903 - 1961

Geometry as a Branch of Physics (1949)

„I do not in the least underestimate bisexuality... I expect it to provide all further enlightenment.“

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— Sigmund Freud Austrian neurologist known as the founding father of psychoanalysis 1856 - 1939

Letter to Wilhelm Fliess (25 March 1898)
1890s

„Formulating and structuring a system provide methods for relating (1) what the system consists of in the mind of the persons or group desiring it; (2)what it means in terms of the persons or group designing and building it; and (3) in terms of the persons or groups operating, using and servicing it. They provide a set of "reasonable" parts and methods of relating them so that the many persons working on the system can understand the whole in sufficient detail for their purposes, and their particular parts in explicit detail so that they may contribute their best efforts to the extent required. A further purpose of system formulation is to recognize the magnitude of the job, including the possible pitfalls.“

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— Harold Chestnut American engineer 1917 - 2001

Quelle: Systems Engineering Tools, (1965), Systems Engineering Methods (1967), p. 70; Rest of first paragraph of Ch.3

„All the light which is radiated… will, after it has traveled a distance r, lie on the surface of a sphere whose area S is given by the first of the formulae (3). And since the practical procedure… in determining d is equivalent to assuming that all this light lies on the surface of a Euclidean sphere of radius d, it follows…4 \pi d^2 = S = 4 \pi r^2 (1 - \frac{K r^2}{3} + …);whence, to our approximation 4)d = r (1- \frac{K r^2}{6} + …), or
r = d (1 + \frac{K d^2}{6} + …).</center“

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— Howard P. Robertson American mathematician and physicist 1903 - 1961

Geometry as a Branch of Physics (1949)

„We shall never be safe unless we already understand in our hearts all that the anti-democrats can say, and have provided for it better than they.“

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— Clive Staples Lewis Christian apologist, novelist, and Medievalist 1898 - 1963

Equality (1943)
Kontext: Every intrusion of the spirit that says, "I'm as good as you" into our personal and spiritual life is to be resisted just as jealously as every intrusion of bureaucracy or privilege into our politics. Hierarchy within can alone preserve egalitarianism without. Romantic attacks on democracy will come again. We shall never be safe unless we already understand in our hearts all that the anti-democrats can say, and have provided for it better than they. Human nature will not permanently endure flat equality if it is extended from its proper political field into the more real, more concrete fields within. Let us wear equality; but let us undress every night.

„• Restoration of the House cut on DPWH amounting to P242.6 million under MFO 3 or “Maintenance and Construction Services of Infrastructures” and the restoration of P1.318 billion under MFO 1 or “National Road Network Services.” In addition, an increase of P1.130 billion will be provided for the Quick Response Fund of the DPWH to bring it to P2 billion;“

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— Francis Escudero Filipino politician 1969

2014, Speech: Sponsorship Speech for the FY 2015 National Budget

„The welfare of the people in particular has always been the alibi of tyrants, and it provides the further advantage of giving the servants of tyranny a good conscience.“

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— Albert Camus, buch Resistance, Rebellion, and Death

"Homage to an Exile", published as an essay in Actuelles III, originally a speech "delivered 7 December 1955 at a banquet in honor of President Eduardo Santos, editor of El Tiempo, driven out of Colombia by the dictatorship".
Resistance, Rebellion, and Death (1960)
Kontext: The welfare of the people in particular has always been the alibi of tyrants, and it provides the further advantage of giving the servants of tyranny a good conscience. It would be easy, however, to destroy that good conscience by shouting to them: if you want the happiness of the people, let them speak out and tell what kind of happiness they want and what kind they don't want! But, in truth, the very ones who make use of such alibis know they are lies; they leave to their intellectuals on duty the chore of believing in them and of proving that religion, patriotism, and justice need for their survival the sacrifice of freedom.

„The usefulness of the models in constructing a testable theory of the process is severely limited by the quickly increasing number of parameters which must be estimated in order to compare the predictions of the models with empirical results.“

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— Anatol Rapoport Russian-born American mathematical psychologist 1911 - 2007

Quelle: 1960s, Prisoner's dilemma: A study in conflict and cooperation (1965), p. 150

„An organization comes into being when (1) there are persons able to communicate with each other (2) who are willing to contribute action (3) to accomplish a common purpose. The elements of an organization are therefore (1) communication; (2) willingness to serve; and (3) common purpose. These elements are necessary and sufficient conditions initially, and they are found in all such organizations. The third element, purpose, is implicit in the definition. Willingness to serve, and communication, and the interdependence of the three elements in general, and their mutual dependence in specifie cooperative systems, are matters of experience and observation.“

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— Chester Barnard, buch The Functions of the Executive

Quelle: The Functions of the Executive (1938), p. 82; Highlighted section cited among others in: Dennis K. Mumby (2012), Organizational Communication: A Critical Approach. p. 8

„By induction we gain no certain knowledge; but by observation, and the inverse use of deductive reasoning, we estimate the probability that an event which has occurred was preceded by conditions of specified character, or that such conditions will be followed by the event. …I have no objection to use the words cause and causation, provided they are never allowed to lead us to imagine that our knowledge of nature can attain to certainty. …We can never recur too often to the truth that our knowledge of the laws and future events of the external world are only probable.“

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— William Stanley Jevons English economist and logician 1835 - 1882

Quelle: The Principles of Science: A Treatise on Logic and Scientific Method (1874) Vol. 1, pp. 257, 260 & 271

„An organization comes into being when (1) there are persons able to communicate with each other (2) who are willing to contribute action (3) to accomplish a common purpose.“

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— Chester Barnard, buch The Functions of the Executive

Quelle: The Functions of the Executive (1938), p. 82; Highlighted section cited among others in: Dennis K. Mumby (2012), Organizational Communication: A Critical Approach. p. 8
Kontext: An organization comes into being when (1) there are persons able to communicate with each other (2) who are willing to contribute action (3) to accomplish a common purpose. The elements of an organization are therefore (1) communication; (2) willingness to serve; and (3) common purpose. These elements are necessary and sufficient conditions initially, and they are found in all such organizations. The third element, purpose, is implicit in the definition. Willingness to serve, and communication, and the interdependence of the three elements in general, and their mutual dependence in specifie cooperative systems, are matters of experience and observation.

„The explanation of this book is that the 1929 depression was so wide, so deep, and so long because the international economic system was rendered unstable by British inability and U. S. unwillingness to assume responsibility for stabilizing it by discharging five functions:(1) maintaining a relatively open market for distress goods;
(2) providing countercyclical, or at least stable, long term lending;
(3) policing a relatively stable system of exchange rates;
(4) ensuring the coordination of macroeconomic policies;
(5) acting as a lender of last resort by discounting or otherwise providing liquidity in financial crisis.“

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— Charles P. Kindleberger American economic historian 1910 - 2003

The World in Depression, 1929-1939 (2nd ed., 1986), Ch. 14 : An Explanation of the 1929 Depression

„Knowledge is encoded in models. Models are synthetic sets of rules, and pictures, and algorithms providing us with useful representations of the world of our perceptions and of their patterns.“

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— Didier Sornette French scientist 1957

Quelle: Why Stock Markets Crash - Critical Events in Complex Systems (2003), Chapter 5, Modeling Financial Bubbles And Market Crashes, p. 134.

„All the interests of my reason, speculative as well as practical, combine in the three following questions: 1. What can I know? 2. What ought I to do? 3. What may I hope?“

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— Immanuel Kant, buch Critique of Pure Reason

B 832-833
Critique of Pure Reason (1781; 1787)

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