„How good are markets in predicting real-world developments? Reading the record, it is striking how many calamities that I anticipated did not in fact materialise.

Financial markets constantly anticipate events, both on the positive and on the negative side, which fail to materialise exactly because they have been anticipated.

It is an old joke that the stock market has predicted seven of the last two recessions. Markets are often wrong.“

Letzte Aktualisierung 3. Juni 2021. Geschichte
George Soros Foto
George Soros
US-amerikanischer Investor ungarischer Herkunft 1930

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Paul A. Samuelson Foto

„The stock market has forecast nine of the last five recessions.“

—  Paul A. Samuelson American economist 1915 - 2009

Paul Samuelson (1966), quoted in: John C Bluedorn et al. Do Asset Price Drops Foreshadow Recessions? (2013), p. 4
1950s–1970s

Kai Ryssdal Foto

„The stock market is not the economy, and the economy is not the stock market.“

—  Kai Ryssdal Radio host, United States Navy officer 1963

repeatedly on his radio program " Marketplace APM https://www.marketplace.org/2019/09/30/the-stock-market-is-not-the-economy/" (September 2019)

Benoît Mandelbrot Foto
Geoffrey Moore Foto

„Marketing has long known how to exploit fads and how to develop trends.“

—  Geoffrey Moore, buch Crossing the Chasm

Quelle: Crossing the Chasm, 1991, p. 6

Steve Keen Foto

„If financial markets aren't efficient, then what are they? According to the 'fractal market hypothesis', they are highly unstable dynamic systems that generate stock prices which appear random, but behind which lie deterministic patterns.“

—  Steve Keen Australian economist 1953

Quelle: Debunking Economics - The Naked Emperor Of The Social Sciences (2001), Chapter 11, Finance And Economic Breakdown, p. 243

Johan Huizinga Foto

„History can predict nothing except that great changes in human relationships will never come about in the form in which they have been anticipated.“

—  Johan Huizinga Dutch historian 1872 - 1945

De historie kan niets voorspellen, behalve één ding: dat geen groote wending in de menschelijke verhoudingen ooit uitkomt in den vorm, waarin vroeger levenden zich haar hebben kunnen verbeeld.
Quelle: In the Shadow of Tomorrow (1936), Ch. 20.

Jerry Pournelle Foto
Michael Lewis Foto

„Even in financial markets, the concept of market efficiency does not hold.“

—  Paul Ormerod, buch The Death of Economics

Part II, Chapter 8, The Dynamics of Unemployment, p. 176
The Death of Economics (1994)

N. Gregory Mankiw Foto
Phillip Blond Foto

„The greater the extent of market dynamism, the greater is the positive impact of market-oriented behaviors on market performance.“

—  Christian Homburg German academic 1962

Quelle: "A multiple-layer model of market-oriented organizational culture", 2000, p. 453

Michael Hudson (economist) Foto
George Soros Foto

„The prevailing wisdom is that markets are always right. I take the opposition position. I assume that markets are always wrong. Even if my assumption is occasionally wrong, I use it as a working hypothesis.“

—  George Soros Hungarian-American business magnate, investor, and philanthropist 1930

Soros on Soros (1995)
Kontext: The prevailing wisdom is that markets are always right. I take the opposition position. I assume that markets are always wrong. Even if my assumption is occasionally wrong, I use it as a working hypothesis. It does not follow that one should always go against the prevailing trend. On the contrary, most of the time the trend prevails; only occasionally are the errors corrected. It is only on those occasions that one should go against the trend. This line of reasoning leads me to look for the flaw in every investment thesis.... I am ahead of the curve. I watch out for telltale signs that a trend may be exhausted. Then I disengage from the herd and look for a different investment thesis. Or, if I think the trend has been carried to excess, I may probe going against it. Most of the time we are punished if we go against the trend. Only at an inflection point are we rewarded.

Michael Lewis Foto
Steve Keen Foto

„Since in reality the stock market is inhabited by mere mortals, there is no way that the stock market can be efficient in the way that economists define the term.“

—  Steve Keen Australian economist 1953

Quelle: Debunking Economics - The Naked Emperor Of The Social Sciences (2001), Chapter 10, The Price Is Not Right, p. 216

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